Thursday, January 26, 2006

How long will the Conservative minority last?

Here's my prediction 1.5-2.5 years.

The Liberals are going to need some time to reorganize after picking a new leader, but they won't want to wait to long to give him/her a test-drive.

The Cons have a pretty weak mandate here and they're going to bump up against every other part in parliament with almost every piece of legislation they try to pass. All the parties will have to play together in the sandbox for some time- the electorate just won't come out of the house to break up the dispute if they start squabbling too much. But that sandbox is small, and the kids playing in it are far too fractious. The situation just can't last very long. And the next time the electorate rushes out to break up the dispute, they'll get sick of it and put one of those kids in charge. OK, I think I've carried that hackneyed analogy far enough ;-)

Anyone else out there have any predictions on the length of the Conservative's minority? Any predictions on who'll be forming the next majority?

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