Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Think that the price of oil is going down anytime soon? Think again.

Here's an interesting post I found over on Jim Sinclair's Mineset website. Since I can't link directly the post I've pasted it below. In only a few sentences it manages to make it abundantly clear that the price of oil isn't going to decline anytime soon...despite what some analysts would you have you believe.

Dear Jim,

To summarize a couple key points I got from the wise and experienced Larry Jeddeloh (www.tisgroup.net, a MUST HAVE service for those that can afford it) of the Institutional Strategist. Maybe you cannot afford NOT to get it.

1. Several more wars in the Middle East are happening as the battle for control of 4/5th of the world’s light sweet crude continues.

2. Shia occupies the great majority of the land where this crude oil exists and Sunnis run the countries where most of it exists. On Shia-occupied land Sunnis are making a whole lot of money.

Now some of your and my points

3. The Shia, Sunnis and Kurds, as well as smaller groups in the region, all fear annihilation at the hands of one another. There will be no mixed group governments that last.

4. As you and I have both pointed out in the past, the pipeline systems in Iraq and in Saudi Arabia are very vulnerable. Larry also makes this point.

5. As we have been mentioning for years, the demand for oil in China, Brazil, India and other emerging countries will continue for many years. Now that the growth genie is out of the bottle governments are under tremendous pressure to continue the growth and provide higher standards of living for their people.

In China it means revolution if it does not occur. In India, Brazil and elsewhere it means loss of power for the ruling political class and the stopping of their income from the public trough and corruption.

6. Last time I checked wars never did anything other than increase the debt and budget deficits of the countries involved in them.

Monty Guild
Guild Investment Management, Inc.
23805 Stuart Ranch Road, Suite 105
Malibu, CA 90265
Phone (310)456-8100
FAX (310)456-8093


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