The Conservative themselves seem satisfied with a probable minority. They're still running the same cautious campaign that's brought them to this point so far, they're obviously a lot more concerned with squandering the lead that they have then going in for the kill. In order for the Cons to pull off a majority their either going to have to break through in Quebec or Ontario. A real breakthrough in Quebec is pretty unlikely since the federalist vote is divided, and though most Ontario voters seem comfortable with a minority blue government- most still have quite a few reservations about a majority for Harper. Another thing that works somewhat in the Libs favour is the local candidate factor. Answering a poll question is different then casting the ballot. The voter ends up having to place that mark against a candidates name on voting day, and the Libs simply have more experienced and star candidates so that works in their favour. I'm assuming most of the polls simply ask what party your voting for rather than the name of the candidate, and naturally this would bias peoples responses. Since the individual candidates are much more of asset then the party name for the Libs, I think this will make quite a bit of a difference on election day.
So it seems very likely we're going to end up with a Conservative minority. Here's my wild prediction on the final outcome (heavily influenced by the great projection website www.electionprediction.org ;-)):
Quebec: Bloc- 59 seats, Libs-13, Cons- 3 (splitting the federalist vote will help the bloc)
Ontario: Libs- 51, Cons- 43, NDP-12 (the liberal stronghold will hold, Layton's TO ties finally pay off)
Manitoba: Libs- 4, Cons- 7, NDP-3
Saskatchewan: Libs- 1, Cons- 11, NDP- 2
Alberta: Cons- All 28 (woop it up cons)
BC: Libs- 8, Cons- 16, NDP- 12 (big gains for the NDP)
Newfoundland: Libs- 4, Cons- 3
Nova Scotia: Libs- 5, Cons- 3, NDP- 3
New Brunswick: Libs-5, Cons- 4, NDP- 1
PEI: Libs- 3, Cons-1 (the little lib fortress is breached!)
The North: Libs-2, NDP- 1
Totals: Cons- 119, Libs- 96, Bloc- 59, NDP- 34
OK I more or less pulled this out of my ass, but let's see how accurate it is.
Anyone else bold enough to make any predictions on the final outcome??