Friday, January 20, 2006

Conservative Majority??

Can the Conservatives pull it off?? Polling in the last couple of weeks definitely suggests the Conservatives have a good chance of pulling of a majority. The latest polls however seem to show the Big Blue wave is running out of momentum. According to the most recent Strategic Councel poll the Cons are pulling in 37% (down 5%). So the support for the Cons has seemed to hit a ceiling.

The Conservative themselves seem satisfied with a probable minority. They're still running the same cautious campaign that's brought them to this point so far, they're obviously a lot more concerned with squandering the lead that they have then going in for the kill. In order for the Cons to pull off a majority their either going to have to break through in Quebec or Ontario. A real breakthrough in Quebec is pretty unlikely since the federalist vote is divided, and though most Ontario voters seem comfortable with a minority blue government- most still have quite a few reservations about a majority for Harper. Another thing that works somewhat in the Libs favour is the local candidate factor. Answering a poll question is different then casting the ballot. The voter ends up having to place that mark against a candidates name on voting day, and the Libs simply have more experienced and star candidates so that works in their favour. I'm assuming most of the polls simply ask what party your voting for rather than the name of the candidate, and naturally this would bias peoples responses. Since the individual candidates are much more of asset then the party name for the Libs, I think this will make quite a bit of a difference on election day.

So it seems very likely we're going to end up with a Conservative minority. Here's my wild prediction on the final outcome (heavily influenced by the great projection website ;-)):

Quebec: Bloc- 59 seats, Libs-13, Cons- 3 (splitting the federalist vote will help the bloc)
Ontario: Libs- 51, Cons- 43, NDP-12 (the liberal stronghold will hold, Layton's TO ties finally pay off)
Manitoba: Libs- 4, Cons- 7, NDP-3
Saskatchewan: Libs- 1, Cons- 11, NDP- 2
Alberta: Cons- All 28 (woop it up cons)
BC: Libs- 8, Cons- 16, NDP- 12 (big gains for the NDP)
Newfoundland: Libs- 4, Cons- 3
Nova Scotia: Libs- 5, Cons- 3, NDP- 3
New Brunswick: Libs-5, Cons- 4, NDP- 1
PEI: Libs- 3, Cons-1 (the little lib fortress is breached!)
The North: Libs-2, NDP- 1
Totals: Cons- 119, Libs- 96, Bloc- 59, NDP- 34

OK I more or less pulled this out of my ass, but let's see how accurate it is.
Anyone else bold enough to make any predictions on the final outcome??


Blogger Oleksa said...

Quebec: Bloc- 59 seats, Libs-13, Cons- 3 (splitting the federalist vote will help the bloc)

Cons-3??? Your guessimation is too low - I'm thinking more in the vicinity of 10-13

Their momentum is greatly exaggerated.
Gaining 25 seats would be a very good results for them, no more.

7:34 PM  
Blogger Oleksa said...

How about expanding the game to some particular ridings?

The ones I'll be watching are the following:
- Edmonton-Strathcona (well, you know why and it's always fun to see how all those who overconfident NDPs who say how 'close' the race is this year, proven wrong yet again.

-Vancouver Centre.
Lier vs. Thief. Nuff said.

- New Market-Aurora.
The blond factor :-)

- Etobico-Lakeshore.
It's not really a contest. I'm sure he'll win, prostetations from the Ukrainian community notewithstanding.
What do you think about him in general?

- Trinity-Spadina.
I want Olivia Chow to lose mainly because I anticipate a lot of media fuss about a 'husband-wife' team if she's elected (it'd be so nauseating).

- somewhere in Montreal.
That spaceman, Mark Garneau, who wanted to send Duceppe to the moon or something :-)

7:43 PM  
Blogger A. Shah said...

I don't think the Cons will pick up more than a few seats in Quebec (3 may be a little on the low side). IMO they definitely won't have more then 10, the federalist vote is too divided right now (which of course means big gains for the Bloc).

9:57 PM  
Blogger A. Shah said...

Yeah...I may have overstated the NDP gain in seats. But I do think they will pick up a lot of seats. In terms of the percentage gain in seats, I expect the NDP to do better than any other party this election.

10:20 PM  

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